Petroleum Cyber Conflict: An Open Source Analysis of Entities’ Means, Motive, and Opportunity for Industry Manipulation
Project Members
Kristine Arthur, William Ellis, Mary Horner, Tyler Jensen, Kyle Johansen, Jacob Kambic, Eric Katz, Bryan Lee, Marcus Thompson, Samuel Liles
Kristine Arthur, William Ellis, Mary Horner, Tyler Jensen, Kyle Johansen, Jacob Kambic, Eric Katz, Bryan Lee, Marcus Thompson, Samuel Liles
Abstract
Recent events of national significance within the oil and gas industry have brought to light both the question of defining threat sources and that of plausibly attributing known events to a threat source. The unprecedented rise in events begets the question of whether this is incidental to the continued advancement of technology and awareness, or suggests an ongoing conflict which may escalate. To that end, this report seeks to aggregate relevant events, present criteria for outlining threat origins, and determining the likelihood that the incidents are related as well as whether or not any observed correlation points to a persistent aggressor or simply circumstantial coincidence. The purpose of this analysis is to provide decision makers with a clearer idea of the current security outlook and what the causes for concern appear to be. All events and options should be considered cautiously and as empirically as possible.